CALIBRATING THE OFFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION

Translated by Google

 ORIGINAL SPANISH ARTICLE

http://futbolisticametrica.blogspot.com/2011/10/calibrando-la-contribucion-al-juego.html


A NECESSARY BUT repeated introduction

Since we began this adventure blogger always had in mind, rather than the pursuit of accuracy in the evaluation of statistics, as the effort to find new fields of assessment different from what we usually do offer the means and also from figures provided by the media and are very accessible to all.

But as we said, we are not guided by the desire for accuracy, but rather the relevance. The accuracy does not exist in most fields of human activity and those where it is more or less achievable, it appears as difficult to gauge. No. That is not our way. What we want is to find a readily available information, fast processing and immediate exposure. We may not remember what time, minutes and seconds flat was a success, but it will be easy to define if it was morning, afternoon or evening. If it was in the afternoon, we can remember without much effort if it was over lunch, before dinner or somewhere in between. If it was in that middle ground, maybe we can remember what program you were watching on TV, or if the sky was still dark and light or, or if it was before or after going to the purchase of which still keep the ticket. With a few descriptive elements (brand, model, color, appearance and age of the driver, etc), the police may confine the search for a driver to escape a group of 20 suspects in a population of half a million inhabitants. Acting in the same way we can end up finding out that such an event we wanted to locate in time we can be in the range of 15-30 minutes of the 1440 has a full day. Is this accurate? No Is this relevant? Undoubtedly yes.

EVERY THING ITS IMPORTANCE

In our previous article

DOMAIN FACTOR BEYOND POSSESSION http://futbolisticametrica.blogspot.com/2010/06/el-factor-de-dominio-mas-alla-de-la.html delimitábamos the importance of the outcome had different data as the goal, shooting or possession and articulábamos weighting in a table that served not so much the accuracy of the contribution, as the priority in the assessment of it. That is the way we're going to move here.

AGAIN, NOTHING BEFORE THE GOAL

We will not tire of repeating. Football is a sport characterized by a single type of score that is also low. Everything is done in the field is intended to achieve or avoid it is the only means to victory, becoming an end in itself. Like most of the time a goal is absent party just to focus too much attention on the process to get to the point that sometimes we tend to underestimate when it comes after a move fast or timely.

In the article mentioned, pondered as 51% (ie, more than anything else together) the importance of scoring when defining which team was dominant, without getting in the way of reaching that score. In this case within the 51% we will assess both goals and assists by being both quantifications finalists from a fait accompli.

The question now is as good as a goal that assistance? No. Because there are a lot of goals without an illuminating final pass (free kicks, penalty, individual moves, shot after a short drive or a few taps of accommodation so ...), but worth less. Thus if the goal we give a value of 1, we will provide assistance worth [0-1], but what?

The way we propose to achieve this information is applied to the total of goals for a team total team goal assists. Obviously we can approach it from an absolute point of view (establishing a fixed ratio) or relative. The first case we would require at least a generic approach data from a sufficient number of teams, including several championships in order to find meaningful information. The second data provide us the same computer that plays the player.

For example. Last season, Barcelona scored 95 goals in league and distributed among all players 68 assists, giving a ratio of 0.72. But this year, 18 of the 22 goals (0.82) come from an assist. Returning from last year, we find the proportion in other teams:

Real Madrid 0.73

0.80-Valencia

Villarreal 0.78.

If we go to other leagues, we can do a medley of representative teams, thus rewarding the teams that win over those who fail. A boat soon:

-Manchester United 0.76

0.64-Chelsea

-Manchester City 0.63

0.78-Arsenal

0.72-Milan

0.80 Inter

0.80-Naples

Borussia-0.69

0.70-Leverkusen

-Bayern 0.70

0.69-Lille

-Marseille 0.68

0.67-Lyon

Although there are some peculiarities, it is significant that all are in a relatively narrow range [0.63 to 0.80], and the average between these two extremes gives us between 0715 and 0723 all the data displayed. For both assists and goals established between 0.72-1.00 relationship can be quite balanced.

Now, all this research data to gauge interest came from the goals and assists in the total production of computer game. Since we assume (even conventionally) that 0.51 was the total weight in the team's offensive game was the goal, applying that relationship would give us a weight of 0305 to 0205 for goals and assists.

WHEN THE GOAL IS NEAR

There are so many different circumstances that influence a sport like football that the mere fact of wanting to account for all is absurdly expensive and useless, mainly because of luck or chaotic influence individual behavior can turn a good development work in sterile. More we must not fail to consider those facts in the passing game has not the goal box as if they create a sense of danger, a tired defenders, and long-term a reliable indicator of the team's offensive potential.

When we spoke Domain Factor passed the goal in the shooting and we generated a complete casuistry to be examined in perspective. Here we will get both, since the information available to both amateur hard tunes. Here we consider the two data that may be more important in the offensive play except for goals and assists.

The first is the figure of shots on goal. Although all the shots are valuable, as they reflect a breakdown of marks or a greater degree of involvement in the offensive game, here considered in this second step that is most relevant when the player approaches the door rival.

With him count the attendance data without a goal, a figure that reflected increasingly means to gauge the contribution of creative players have the facility to give a pass that allows a shot on goal.

Finally we will respect the primacy of the goal through conservation of the ratio 1:0.72 and 0.25 apply it to those that weigh the shots in our domain factor, resulting in 0.145 and 0.105 respectively.

NEITHER FIRE NOR GOL COME ALONE

But this is football in the schoolyard, where children's crack that he had only to drive the ball dodging opponents to score the goal or at least shoot at goal. This is professional football, and soccer game now has finally cornered collective individualities. Great players are left midway due to lack of ability to work or tactical discipline.

In the game offensive or creation, which is what we are assessing here, when the ball is fired, is brought last year, and for being driven, end up being fired, lost last year.

As in the development is essential to possess the ball and pass well, we contribution of 0.24 to reserve the most part, 0.16 to pass statistics. When we do appreciate these absolutely (counting the passes that gives the player) in which case you miss the reference for comparison, or relative manner (the proportion of good passes given by the player) that has the severe problem of valuing the same way a defender simple uncomplicated life to get the ball to an organizer by passing a copious flow of play. So let's pick a figure that somehow summarizes the two perspectives, which is the proportion of passes good of the team given by the player. In this way the most efficient in the pass (which rewards players against Fallon) will be combined with greater participation in the collective game (which rewards against players less participatory).

Finally, what remains is a remaining 0.08 which we will deliver using 3 of the most important statistics in the non considered so far (if not more). The shooting in general (in this case the door will not), the turnovers and turnovers. The way to articulate them is to find the proportion of shots made by the player team (a fact that being older is more valuable) and multiply by the ratio of turnovers and lost, so that it rewards those players who have initiative but do not allow too many options to attack the rival. Here we have the simple problem that this ratio being less than 1 in defensive players, some of that 0.08 will be lost forever, but since it will be relatively negligible overall effect (2-3%), the fact is to using a relevant data such as the proportion of recovered fumbles and compensates the loss.

SUMMING

Here is the table summarizing the proceedings and apply to different players to measure their contribution offensive. Do not forget that each of these weighting factors are applied, rather than absolute data (to goals, assists, shots), but the relative proportion of them (goals of the player / team goals, assists the player / team assistant, etc.), and the end result will always be in [0-1], it can be applied to the total goals of the team to find out how much may be due to the player and allow comparison with other players equipment, or apply to the total of wins or points, although in this case the information will not be considered less relevant for defensive variant. A future article will address this objection.

Although it may seem that the final analysis is somewhat arbitrary, the reader can verify for himself that the application of this table to different players on a team, even when assigned different proportions, will ultimately fairly consistent data.